Aurobindo Ghose


Aurbindo Ghose

Below is given the link of Exit Polls in UP elections, of seven well known polster bodies. All of them ( except CSDS ) show BJP leading heavily with SP-Congress second and Mayawati-BSP a poor third. The seven pollsters are : VMR, MRC, Today's Chanakya, Axis, C-Voter, CSDS, Network-18.

(  )

I, of course, do not believe these Exit Polls.

Corporate- managed polls, particularly in a crony capitalist framework in India, are naturally susceptible to manipulation and string-pulling. Besides, after Brexit and US Presidency with Trump's coming in against all pollster odds, and nearer home Bihar and Delhi elections 2016, what is left of the credibility of Exit Pol anlsd the so-called 'science' of Psephology ( or the accurate predicting of election results ) !

These Exit Polls suffer from obvious biases. They have caste, communal and regional biases reflected in their sample of respondents mostly from the upper caste Hindus. They have all clearly ignored or underestimated the Ajit Singh-RLD factor in Western UP encompassing the first and second polling phases and the BSP- Mayawati factor in Poorvanchal or Eastern UP encompassing the fifth, sixth and seventh phases.

In relatively developed Western UP, the Jats who had been swayed  by Love Jihad videos in 2014 leading to the Muzaffarnagar riots, and overwhelmingly sided with BJP then, were wiser this time after  crash in sugarcane prices , post-Notebandi ( Demonetisation) and the bad experience of Jat reservation agitation in BJP-ruled Haryana.The RLD is likely to win anywhere between 20 to 30 seats in UP, which is conspicuously missing from all the Exit Polls.

 In Poorvanchal, a relatively economically backward area known for communal harmony over the years, the key issues were Modi's failure to keep developmental poll promises, Notebandi and local issues and personalities/ factors ( like the don Mukhtar Ansari and the boating-cum-fishing community of NISHAD).

The Nishads belonging to the non-Yadav OBC, who were expected to vote for the BJP had their own candidates, who cut into the performance of the BJP .

Similarly, Mukhtar, popular as the local Robin Hood, was a major factor for cementing the poor Dalit- Muslim masses behind Mayawati.

Mayawati edged out the others here, which is not reflected in the calculations for the Exit Polls.

The Exit Polls also do not take into account such qualitative factors as the lack of organizational unity and discipline in both the BJP and the SP- Congress combine.

The father-son feud literally broke the SP into two halves, one not knowing what the other was doing.

Mulayam addressed only two or three SP rallies and meetings this time, whereas in the last state election in 2012, he had addressed more than 300 meetings.

The utterances and political actions  of Yogi Adityanath and his Hindu Sena and the mother-son duo of Maneka Gandhi- Varun Gandhi caused not a little embarrassment to the BJP. In marked contrast, the BSP gave the image and impression of a very unified and disciplined force, though somewhat decentralised in its command structure.

From the very announcement of the polls, BSP had  already  shed its rebels and dissidents and also inducted ( or just about to induct ) new faces and forces like former Mulayam- aides Ambika Chaudhary, Mukhtar Ansari,Narad Rai and Vijay Mishra into the party.

I would rather go by the time-tested art of comprehending images and signs, reading faces and portents and listening in to batkahis or common talks at tea-stalls, barber shops and village/ mohalla nukkads.

Going by all such indicators, my gut feeling is, except for a major EVM tampering or scam, that the elephant is romping home.The cycle tyre is punctured and the lotus has failed to bloom. I am taking a big risk and also a big plunge. But I am confident of a non-BJP Govt. coming to power in UP.

Of course, the Centre as well as the BJP, by hook or by crook, will make every effort so that an Opposition Govt. does not take office in Lucknow. However, whoever wins or forms the Govt in UP,  whether BSP or Akhilesh-Congress combine  , on its own or in post-poll-result  alliance , BJP  and Modi will not let the new UP Govt alone or allow it to function.. The Central Govt, in case of an Opposition Govt in UP, will use all its powers to crush the UP Govt.

There are two reasons why the UP elections were so important for the BJP.

First, the poll for the new President of India is around the corner.and the NDA alliance needs to muster a sufficiently large number of MLAs and MLCs to have the President of its own choice. Secondly, this is the Silver Jubilee year of the demolition of the Babri Masjid .and as the legal dispute over the Babri Masjid is still pending in the Supreme Court of India, the Central Govt would prefer to have a BJP Govt in Lucknow too, or at least one on which it can have influence if not control, so that the case in the Supreme Court can be properly co-ordinated in keeping with their Ram Mandir movement or their Hindutva agenda.

Anecdotal Evidence of Poll Trends and Poll Forecast

Through civilization and man's history, the human species has developed signs and portents in nature to guide him in everyday life. In every language little jingles tell us of some such signs and portents of the future.There are some popular Bengali jingles and proverbs which are very instructive. " At sunrise, if the horizon is clouded and unclear, it shows a change of season."Similarly, it is said " When the jackal howls in the jungle, the tiger is not far away."

Some Positive Signs and Portents

  1. Lets start from the penultimate stage of this election: the last day of canvassing on 6th of March. Significant news.
  2. Modi and Akhilesh campaigned furiously till it was 5:00 PM.. Like school and college students mugging their notes outside the exam hall till the bell rings. While Mayawati relaxed at her Lucknow bungalow taking stock of the polling till now. So that she could monitor tomorrow's polling better.
  3. Also, if, God forbid, the  EVMs were to be tampered, she must have clear estimates of votes polled for BSP in every booth, constituency and region. Then only she would be in a position to  question the results, if there was to be rigging of any kind. She is confident and better organixed than the the other two rivals. The signs are clear. The elephant is romping home.
  4. With four phases of election in UP over up to 26th February for 262 seats and three phases remaining for 141 seats in 26 districts, the BJP claimed it was winning 175 of the 262 seats polled till then, or a 66.66 % strike rate. It is then that the RSS after some investigation, came out with its Ground Report which clearly found that the BJP was winning only 75 of the 262 seats with difficulty. It was then that the plan of desperate measures to get the RSS volunteers to motivate and mobilize the voters was chalked out. Perhaps it was at that very time the idea of making the Prime Minister of the country to be available for Road Shows and lane-to-lane canvassing in his Parliamentary constituency was conceived and later executed much to the humiliation of the Prime Minister and his status. These desperate steps indicate a very poor organizational performance on part of the BJP and forebode its downfall.
  5. On 2nd March, 2017, an amazing story appears in the Patrika paper in Hindi published from Lukhnow and the next day in English in India Today.. It is not about Psephology or the science of predicting election results. It is about the advance signs or premonition of the likely election result. The question doing the rounds in the corridors of power and among the Babus of Lukhnow, so this story narrated, was : Is Mayawati returning to power in UP post-March 11? Going by the amount of renovation and maintenance of parks and memorials constructed during Mayawati's rule, the answer seemed to be YES. 100 ( or 50%) of the 200 Gates to these Parks, till recently lying in shambles, had been renovated. One crore worth of goods required for plumbering work to assure water supply to such parks as the Ambedkar Memorial Park at Gomti Nagar, had already been purchased. The statues of Elephants which were gathering dust till last month, had suddenly acquired polish and shine.The ballots which had been cast, were still in the boxes and many more still remained to be cast.. Other votes are still to be cast in the last two phases of polling. But this was till then the surest sign of Mayawati's impending victory. For the Babus of Lucknow were getting ready for the strict, much- feared administrator  to ascend the throne of the Chief Minister.
  6. The signs of the emerging  Dalit- Muslim alliance as part of a larger 'rainbow coalition' of social forces will be clear from these two examples of advance, intricate and creative pplanning in the selection of candidates. In the most prestigious seat of Rampur, having the largest concentration of Muslim votes, there are .3.17 lakh voters, 58 per cent of them Muslim. Jatavs count for 17 per cent; the other 25 per cent includes Yadavs and Shakyas.The BSP candidate, Dr. Tanveer Ahmed, a radiologist, was selected nearly two years back, when he was arrested and detained for five days, for protesting the demolition of  hutments of the most disadvantaged Valmiki community,  by the sitting candidate and SP Minister Azam Khan. Ground reports suggest an imminent defeat for Azam Khan at the hands of the BSP candidate. Such elaborate and artful advance planning is also evident for the Balha reserved constituency of Bahraich district on the borders of Nepal. The BSP candidate Ms Kiran Bharti a Dalit, had given a good fight in 2012. She was having the able support of her husband, former General Secretary of the DUSU ( Delhi University Students' Union ) Mohd. Shaukat Khan. Both these living examples of Dalit- Muslim unity at the ground level has spread all over Uttar Pradesh by word of mouth.
  7. The extent and depth of support of the diversified support to Mayawati,  of the minority community and many other effective community organizations can be gauged by the list of the names,  number and eminence of different bodies from all across UP such as the Brahman Mahasabha,the Rihai Manch and the Rashtriya Ulema Council. The Rihai Manch which  came into existence after the Batla House encounter in Delhi in September 2008., is a group that describes itself as " For Resistance against Repression ". Wheras, the Rashtriya Ulema Council, also formed in Azamgarh in the wake of the Batla House encounter, is an organization of clerics , who though fought the last elections, decided to withdraw in favour of Mayawati and BSP this time.
  8. Ravish Kumar, the iconic journo and NDTV anchor- person writes; " It seems that Mayawati is making her entry this time in Singham style." The ads that are being put up all over the social and small print media stand out in terms of their appeal, diversity and focus on the multi-faceted victims and needy in society. One of the posters says " Upeksha ko Jane Do, Behanji Ko Aane Do." or " Let Discrimination end, Let Behanji arrive."
  9.  Mayawati has made it plain that in case she fails to obtain majority in the Assembly, she will never join hands with the BJP under no circumstances whatsoever.

There is little doubt from all these little and big signs, that come 11th March, 2017, the voters of UP would be choosing the Bahujan Samaj Party and its leader Mayawati to be the next Chief Minister of UP. "

हस्तक्षेप से जुड़े अन्य अपडेट लगातार हासिल करने के लिए हमें
facebook फेसबुक पर फॉलो करे.
facebook ट्विटर पर फॉलो करे.
"हस्तक्षेप"पाठकों-मित्रों के सहयोग से संचालित होता है। छोटी सी राशि से हस्तक्षेप के संचालन में योगदान दें।