2018 Assembly elections : A preface to Lok Sabha polls, congress is in the winning race     

BSP’s non-companionship will have no affects on congress....

अतिथि लेखक
2018 Assembly elections : A preface to Lok Sabha polls, congress is in the winning race                                          

JAG MOHAN THAKEN FROM CHANDIGARH

To impose emergency or create emergency-like situation for political gains is one of the worst   results of absolute power and majority rule. Majority always breeds suppression and autocracy. Excess of everything is bad, rather it ends in a curse. An autocratic rule always creates fear, chaos and resentment in the minds of not only public, but leaders too. Opposition leaders   fall prey of   revengeful politics. But, ultimately the fear creates boldness and revolt. The mum voice of public turns to a current of underwater waves and this unheard voice may become a game changer. Feeling the beats of such unsung voices, some far-sighted politicians of the country have started to float their ships on these hidden waves. As the 2019 is nearing to dawn, the different political parties have started to beat their tambourines in their own ways with different beats, but playing the same melody of ‘Kursi Rag’ (The Chair Melody) with a common target, alike Arjuna, to get the ‘Kursi’. But to win over the audiences, all the drum beaters and   the song party members will have to keep consonance in the rhythm. Will they? The answer of this question will decide the fate of these drummers.

Now the leaders of opposition parties, like NCP leader Sharad Pawer, AAP Rajya Sabha member Sanjay Singh and even the chief of Shiv Sena Party, are levelling charges of creating Emergency–like situation against the present Modi government. Times of India reports that Uddhav Thackeray had alleged on August 13, 2018 that there was an Emergency-like situation in the country. Addressing a function hosted by Mumbai Marathi Patarkar Sangh Uddhav reportedly said, “Indians overthrew the Emergency clamped by the British Raj and the one imposed by Indira Gandhi. Similarly, we will throw the present Emergency out of the window.” Is really an Emergency-like situation prevailing in the country? Will the Modi government meet the same fate as in 1977 elections Indira Gandhi had to face?

In 2014, the people, fed up with the congress era and influenced with the lollypops of Rs.15 lakhs in each account and in the hope of regaining the system of ‘Ram Rajya’, voted Modi in power with a thumping majority. But during the last more than 4-year span of Modi-Raj a lot of hot and cold water has flowed through the rivers of India. Public has enjoyed and faced the Jumalebaji, Pradhan Mantri Fasal Beema Yojana, assurances of doubling the income of farmers and houses for all by 2022, sufferings of shivering in the queues before the banks during Notebandi, steep rise in oil prices, forced linkage of Aadhaar Card with Bank Accounts, voter cards, ration cards, sim-cards etc. Opposition is terming these as burden, whereas the BJP government is preaching it as boon. What the reality is, will be reflected by the public when they will go to the ballot box cabin.

Now the Election Commission has announced on October 6,2018 the assembly elections for five states –Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram. Out of these, first three are presently ruled by BJP.

The results of these states will convey the mood of the people for 2019 Lok Sabha Poll. A poll survey conducted by C-voter for ABP News has projected the congress as winner in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

Previously feeling the heat of the hour, the entire opposition had felt the need to fight unitedly to win over the ballot battle against BJP. But, when the bugle of battle blown, the so claimed unity is falling aground like a deck.

In the line with Bahujan Samaj Party, the Akhilesh’s Samajwadi Party has also decided to move ahead without waiting for the company of congress in these assembly elections.

Akhilesh Yadav said that he cannot wait any longer for the congress party. It seems that the saying- “United they stand, divided they fall’, is not going to be an action line for the opposition in these state assembly elections. It shows the lack of confidence among the anti-BJP buddies.

Amid this no-confidence situation among the anti-BJP herd, the BJP has blown its trumpet in Rajasthan on the very day of election declaration through a rally of Prime Minister Narender Modi at Ajmer on October 6,2018. Feeling seriously the speculations of   the Rajasthan going out of clutches, Modi has a start from this state to gear up the loose clutches. Modi on this occasion, in a scathing attack on congress, accused the opposition party practicing vote bank politics and dividing people to get into power. He said, “Congress has failed not only as ruling party, but in opposition as well.”

Negating the developmental works of congress and praising the PM Modi, Rajasthan Chief Minister, Vasundhara Raje said, “For 50 years India suffered .50 unfortunate years when those entrusted with power did not do their duties responsibly. It was the Modi Sarkar, determined on change, that led the nation to progress- transforming and reimaging a New India, reaffirming the faith of millions.”

Bowing to the voters to give her a chance again, obstinate   Raje urged, “The journey that began in 2013 has brought Rajasthan into a gilded age. I urge you to unite once again and march ahead with BJP Rajasthan, scripting another spectacular chapter of success and development in the glorious story of a Naya Rajasthan.”

On the other hand, Congress seems to have adopted the Gandhian path of not criticizing and attacking the opponent. Its Rajasthan state leader and former Chief Minister, Ashok Gehlot, accepting the Raje government’s developmental works, has assured to continue with these works. As per ANI report, October 7, former Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot said that congress will go to polls on development plank and if voted to power it would continue with CM Vasundhara Raje-led government’s schemes rather bringing them to an end. “If we come to power, we promise the people of Rajasthan that we’ll not end any schemes started by CM Vasundhara Raje. We’ll take them forward. For development, it is our progressive thought to work in the interest of people without wasting time.”

Here arise the questions, “Why the congress leader assuring to continue the developmental works started by Raje? Are the people of Rajasthan very much influenced and satisfied with these works? And if Raje was doing so well, then why the public will change her in favour of congress?”

But, the other contender of Chief Ministership and the present State President of congress, Sachin Pilot twitted on October 3, “Met scores of upbeat, enthusiastic congress workers and people from all parts of Rajasthan, in PCC office, Jaipur. They bring in one common message- people are ready to root out this BJP government with people friendly congress.”

However, due to a long political ground experience and a grip over Rajasthan politics, Mr. Ashok Gehlot is the main stalwart of the congress party and Sachin Pilot, a close youth associate of Rahul Gandhi has become the icon due to his strenuous efforts to raise the congress party dashed to ground by losing all the 25 Lok Sabha seats in 2014 elections. And now the congress is in the winning race.

There are some other election fighters also in the race who claim their strength to change the election scenario of Rajasthan. A six-time MLA with RSS background, staunch critic of Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje, a stalwart   BJP-departed old Brahmin leader and President of his own newly formed Bharat Vahini Party (BVP), Ghanshyam Tiwari claims that his party will fight on all the 200 seats and without his support no party shall be in a position to form government. PTI reports (October 7) Tiwari, “The congress is not in a position to form government and the BJP is set to face a historic defeat in the state. Forming government in Rajasthan would not be possible without BVP”

The Brahmin leader is sailing in the hope of getting the upper castes votes, especially the Brahmin Community. He says, “The BJP has betrayed people of upper castes and its base vote bank has slipped.”

But, Ashok Sharma, from Dudu constituency, presently working with a Hindi daily in Jaipur since last 30 years, demolishing the hope of Tiwari, says, “Its right that some voters of upper castes –Brahmins and Rajputs have departed from BJP in favour of Congress party, but Tiwari is not gaining anything from this departure. Bahujan Samaj Party will also not get a sizeable share this time too.”

Another fire brand leader, Hanuman Beniwal, claiming   to fetch votes of farmer community, especially Jat Votes, may swing the power balance. It is also airing that BSP may align with Tiwari and Beniwal and this alliance can change the political scenario in the state.

Sunil Kumar Meena, a scheduled tribe social activist and a coaching centre runner at Sardarshahar in Rajasthan says, “BSP is not in a position to win any seat on its own, better it should have made an alliance with congress. However, a large section of SC/ST communities are associated with congress, but during last some months the people of these communities have also shown their inclination towards BSP. If BSP makes alliance with Jat leader Hanuman Beniwal, it may fetch some sizeable number.”

Reacting on the claim of Brahmin leader Ghanshyam Tiwari, Meena says, “Ghanshyam Tiwari will not get a major share of his community, as Brahmins will not depart from BJP. He may get a minor share.”

Chanan Mal, an ex-serviceman and a backward community member, resident of village Dhanothi   from Sadulpur constituency clearly states, “Congress ka palara bhari hai Sir.jat vote judega. (Congress is having an upper hand.  Jats will favour it.)”

Ravinder Poonia , a teacher in Rajasthan reacts , “ Sir g Rajasthan m BSP ka koi janadhaar nhi h, Mayawati g time ko dekhakar ase candidate ko ticket degi jo kisi n kisi party se asantust hoga, ase m itne bare area m, 2 or 4 seat nikalna possible h, Congress pr koi asar nhi hoga, jaat biradri puri trah BJP K khilap h, Congress ki support m h, Tiwari g apni seat aasani se nikal lega is se  jayda Kuchh nhi, Sharma cast bhi BJP K khilap h, ase m Pradesh m INC ki govt banne m Koi doray nhi h .( Sir, in Rajasthan , BSP has no base. Mayawati will decide after seeing the time nerve and give the party tickets to the dissidents of other parties. In such a big area state, only 2 or 4 seats win over is possible in these circumstances. BSP’s non-companionship will have no affects on congress. Jats are fully against the BJP and are in support of congress. Tiwari ji will win over his personal seat easily and not more than this. Brahmin community is also against BJP. In such conditions there are no two thoughts about the formation of government by the Indian national Congress in the state.”

A political analyst, Ved Pal, former Vice-Chairman of Agriculture Development Bank, says, “Certainly the congress will win the race with a huge margin due to not fulfilling the voter’s expectations by the BJP government. Jats and Rajputs have turned their face backwards. The leaders like Ghanshyam Tiwari and Hanuman Beniwal can win on their individual seats only, they have some followers on social grounds but have no mass following on political platform. BSP’s sharing is decreasing in every election since 2008.”

Giving figures about the decreasing share of BSP, Ved Pal states, “BSP got 7.60 % votes in 2008 assembly elections, it further decreased to 3.43% in 2013 with a win on only 3 seats and now it seems to touch zero level.”

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