Home » Only 28 percent voters will be game changer in Uttar Pradesh?

Only 28 percent voters will be game changer in Uttar Pradesh?

Muslim voters may spoil two M’s but make one M’s stronger that is why each party has worked meticulously for ticket distribution in the state.
Dharmendra Kumar Singh
Sixth phase of the general elections are over but suspense over Uttar Pradesh’s result  is not clear. Many experts are excitedly predicting a BJP sweep in Uttar Pradesh election . It is being argued that BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi’s nomination from Varanasi has so electrified the voters of Uttar Pradesh that is party could win more than 50 seats out of 80 seats but Uttar Pradesh is only state where difficult to predict seats when five parties are in fray. Split of votes may change the fortune of party and even may be proved spoiler for others.
Uttar Pradesh is the same state where Congress failed to open account in 1977 and 1998 election but after only 7 years Party scored 83 out of 85 seats in 1984.  BJP also performed very well from 1991 to 1998 election but its strength has been decreasing from 1999 Lok Sabha election onwards. Uttar Pradesh is totally different states where first time state is facing fifth corner contest. In such peculiar situation, arithmetic may go any direction. This election is not about arithmetic but about the chemistry of ground reality, 5 different chemical ingredients in Uttar Pradesh’s political lab may produce oxygen for particular party and carbon monoxide for others. Projecting for Uttar Pradesh is not only science but also art. Psychologists play with numbers but forget arts while contrary Journalists used to apply sixth sense but don’t know how to play with numbers because voting pattern has now changed during the polling day. Which castes and religion will go which direction is unpredictable?  Religion and caste play major role in Uttar Pradesh but focus on Muslims who constitute 18 percent of the population are going to vote this election in Uttar Pradesh is not clear.
Muslim voters who decided to defeat Modi but where they are casting their votes are  more important. The fate of the state’s 80 Lok Sabha seats depend on four M’s – Modi, Mulayam, Muslim and Mayawati. Muslim voters may spoil two M’s but make one M’s stronger that is why each party has worked meticulously for ticket distribution in the state.
BJP has fielded 25 OBCs, 17 Brahamins, 14 Thakurs, 17 Dalits, 3 Vaishays and one Pasi and Bhumihar each while 2 seats were given to Apana Dal. It means 27 tickets were given to OBC candidates if Apna dal is included. Interestingly, BJP has always fought for 50. 0% of total votes since the remaining 50 % have traditionally never voted for BJP. This includes Muslims, Yadavs and Dalits. BJP had performed the best in 1998 Loksabha election scoring 36 percent votes and bagged 52 seats out of 80 seats. It seems those party will get more than 28 percent votes will be prove number one party.  If it crosses 30 percent may cross 40 seats. It is learnt BJP is expected to perform very well but how many seats they will get is not clear. BJP’s winning equation of Upper castes, a section of OBCs and Dalits that is reason BJP has not fielded single candidate of Muslim.
The stark reality is that caste and religion are the deciding factor in state politics.  Mayawati has given weightage to Brahamins and Muslims candidates.  BSP has given tickets to 21 Brahmins, 19 Muslims, 17 Dalits, 15 OBCs and 8 Thakurs out of 80 seats. Any one understands the ticket distribution game of Mayawati. If three dominants castes and religion are added, constitute to 51 percent. Questions arise whether majority of Muslims and Brahmins voters will vote for Mayawati or not. If Muslim voters go in favour of BSP, scenario will be changed drastically if not then Muslims voters are fragmented. Mayawati tends to get underplayed but it depends how Mayawati fetch of Muslim votes. BSP performed first time very well getting 20 seats scoring 27.42 percent in 2009 election. It is another matter SP fetched 23 seats, getting 4 percent less of BSP.
Here we explain it there is no correlation between seats and percent but we will explain it latter.  If Muslim voters vote in favour of Mayawati’s share may touch 40 percent but it seems unlikely. The changes in the pattern of the BSP’s ticket distribution in UP reflect these objectives: Ticket distributions have been followed in reversed gear not the strength of caste but possibility who can prefer BSP. OBC consists almost two fifth of population of states but scoring fourth position got only 15 seats. After OBCs Dalits comes in number 2 position but forced to settle in third slot, Muslim received fare share while Brahamins who come in fourth position in population fetched almost double share. BSP is focusing on Dalit-Muslim- Brahmin combination.  Mulayam is not far behind of caste and religion game that is reason that is called Maulana Mulayam. Samajwadi Party (SP), has distributed 78 tickets so far, amongst 30 OBCs, 18 Brahmins and Thakurs, and 13 Muslims, 17 Dalits. One can easily understand the politics of party and inclination of caste and religion. The SP is trying to forge an OBC-Muslim-Brahmin combination but due to Muzaffarnagar riots Muslims voters are annoyed with Mulayam Singh Yadav. Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi party had scored the highest seats 35 scoring 26.74 seats in 2004.
Congress has fielded 67 candidates out of 80 seats, rest seats given to RLD, Mahan Dal and not contesting two seats against  Samajwadi leaders. Congress has distributed 67 seats so far, amongst 14 Dalits, 13 Brahmins, Muslim 11, Vaishyas 10, and OBCs 9, one each Jain, Kayastha and Bhumihar. Congress is only party in the state that is facing uphill task from 1991 had improved its position in 2009. AAP besides BJP,Congress, SP and BSP also in fray and may be spoiler if dented in Muslim votes. It seems no party has till now crossed 28 percent votes except BJP in Uttar Pradesh since 1991 election.

About the author

Dharmendra Kumar Singh. Writer is a Political- Election Analyst and senior journalist.

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